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Stock Markets

Call me Ishmael
By NATHAN GREEN
Published: October 15, 2007 12:00 PM

The unrelenting upward march of China's stock markets continues with news just in that the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has breached the 6,000 point ceiling for the first time amid strong earnings predictions.

The index ended Monday 2.15% higher at 6,030.086 points, near its record intra-day high of 6,039.042, the South China Morning Post reported (subscription required, although AP tells much the same story for free). The index is now up 125% from the start of the year, and up a whopping 419% since the beginning of last year.

The unanswered (unanswerable, without the benefit of hindsight?) question: is it a leviathan breaking the waves, in which case it will surely come crashing down, or a bird of prey nesting in an ever-higher rook on the cliff-face.

On the bird of prey side, the breakthrough comes during the third quarter window for earnings reports; while only a handful of firms have so far reported, many of them have said nine-month profits have jumped more than 50%, the SCMP said.

However, the Moby-Dick watchers will surely have one-eye on the price-to-earnings ratio, and a white-knuckled finger poised over the sell button. The price-earnings ratio of Shanghai stocks, based on last year’s earnings, rose above 70 times for the first time as the whale breached, valuing Shanghai at about three times the level in many foreign markets. Hong Kong's ratio is 24 times.

Call me Ishmael, and heed the tale of Ahab.

 

 

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