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China pressured by inflation
By AMY CHEUNG
Published: July 20, 2006 12:00 AM
The continuous rise of Consumer Price Index (CPI), Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) provide additional variables for the government to determine whether interest hikes are necessary, Shanghai Securities Journal reported.   While the National Bureau of Statistics released a CPI for June that has a 1.5 percent year-on-year increase, the figures released by central bank yesterday showed that CGPI has a 2.3 percent year-on-year increase in June. These stimulated the speculations on the price trend in the second half.   CGPI reflected the floating balance between the pricing of investment products and consumer products. Together with CPI, it is on a continuous growth since February. In June, with 0.5 percent growth from May and a 3.2 percent year-on-year jump, investment products have faster growth than consumer products. The latter has a 0.1 percent growth from May and a 0.4 percent year-on-year jump.   What worries the market more is the continuous growth of PPI. With the historical global oil prices reach historical height, raw materials, natural resources and energy prices are also on the rise. Energy prices have a 10.1 percent year-on-year jump while crude oil has a 22 percent year-on-year jump.   Experts say that on one hand, the rise of PPI means the increase of operational cost for companies and a narrowing of potential profit. A more in-dept structural adjustment would be necessary. On the other hand, the expansion of production cost would lead to the expansion of CPI in the near future.   Zheng Jingping, spokesperson of National Bureau of Statistics, stated earlier this week that the national economy is facing enormous inflation pressure which requires particular caution. Liang Hung, head economist at Goldman Sachs China, pointed out that China’s inflation history showed that when overall market and currency demand seem to slow down prices growth, unexpected acceleration of inflation in the following months is expected.   According to central bank’s figures, prices of preliminary products have a 0.9 percent growth from May, a 6.5 percent year-on-year increase; middle products have a 0.4 percent growth from May, a 2.4 year-on-year increase; end products have a 0.1 percent growth from May, a 0.5 percent year-on-year increase.         The indexes have now provided important references for the government to formulate both forex rate and interest rate policies.  
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