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| Thursday, October 16, 2008 00:27:26 |
High GDP increases pressure for yuan and interests reform
National Bureau of Statistics released figures that China's GDP hit a total of US$1.15 trillion in the first half, a 10.9 percent year-on-year increase. It grew 11.3% in the second quarter.
Zheng Jingping, a spokesman from the National Bureau of Statistics, said Tuesday in Beijing, that China's GDP hit a total of US$1.15 trillion in the first half year, up 10.9 percent over the same period last year. It grew 11.3% in the second quarter.
Professor Song Guoqing at China Center for Economic Research of Beijing University told Beijing Business Journal that since China’s foreign reserve is growing at 100 million yuan monthly which increases risk for currency policy, interest hikes are inevitable.
Fixed-asset investment rose 29.8 percent for the first six months 30.9 percent in the second quarter of 2006, according to the released data. Chief of Institute of World Economics and Politics at Chinese Academy of Science pointed out that with high level of fixed asset investment and growing investment rate, yuan appreciation may be able to control the imbalance of China’s economic development.
Economic theory, in the form of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, concludes that a rapidly growing economy will have an exchange rate that appreciates in real terms. A higher nominal rate, faster inflation than the country's trading partners', or a mixture of the two are the two options.
However with general and experts’ expectations, Zheng said that the government has no plan for major changes on the currency.
Chief of China Stock Research Center, Teng Tai, stated last Friday that expensive import but cheap export created loss of national benefits and sacrificed healthy economic growth. China is put in a passive position to exercise macro controls.
“As Premier Wen Jiabao said, there will not be another surprise one-off appreciation yuan appreciation through administrative measures,” Zheng emphasized the government stance following the release of the data.
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