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Demographics

New population structure may bring economic problems
By AMY CHEUNG
Published: August 04, 2006 12:00 AM
The lower birth rate means there is a potential shortage of labour. Economic policy should have a new focus of raising labour productivity, Xinhua reported.   Cai Fang, chief of population and labour economy research at the institute of Academy of Social Sciences, said that since economic growth increases the cost of having children, in addition to the government’s population control measures, the national birth rate continues to slow down.   Since the 1980s, China’s population structurehas been beneficial to the supply of labour with slow aging and sufficient people of working age. However, things are about to change.   Cai said that sufficient labour supply leads to adequate human resources for economic development as well a as high savings rate, which contribute over one fourth of China’s GDP.   Currently, China’s population natural growth rate is lower than 0.9 percent, with people aged 65 or above exceeding 7.6 percent.  This is considered a phenomenon of an aging society. The ratio between male and female births has climbed to 117:100, which is far from the normal average of 105:100.   Cai said that with the continuing decline in the birth rate, China’s labour outlook would be changed from positive to stable by 2013 which would be followed by gradual fall.   The current 10000000 labour population is slumping gradually. The scarcity of labour in Zhuhai Delta and Changjiang Delta regions' factories are not only a problem of the lack of skilled labour but also a signal of the impact of population restructuring on the supply human capital. Cai suggested that labour productivity should be the new focus of China’s economic reform.
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